Predicting an overall vehicle market for 2022 of 540 000 units, President and CEO of Toyota South Motors (TSAM) Andrew Kirby also outlined the company’s plans for carbon reduction emissions at his fifth State of the Motor Industry (SOMI) address.
“The breakdown for this year’s forecast includes 334 800 Passenger models, 178 198 Light Commercial Vehicles (LCV) as well as a total of 27 002 Medium and Heavy vehicles.
“The extrapolation (540 000 units) is based on a variety of socio-economic factors that do not bode well for the local motor industry, including the rising interest rate cycle, the strain taken by the agricultural sector due to heavy rainfall, the muted tourism recovery as well as possible market instability owing to ANC leadership elections and NBF wage negotiations.”
He added his forecast was “constrained” and the industry could even sell more vehicles if the economy performed better than expected or if issues in the automotive supply chain were to be resolved.
This year’s guest speaker, Chief Scientist of Toyota Motor Corporation (TMC) and CEO of Toyota Research Institute (TRI) Dr. Gill Pratt mapped out the company’s global plans with regards to electrification and reduction of carbon emissions as well as autonomous driving.
“We believe in battery electric vehicles and we're investing heavily in them, but we also believe the way to reduce more carbon emissions sooner is to employ diverse solutions. This is particularly important for mitigating climate change because CO2 emissions accumulate globally and remain in the atmosphere for a long time: we need to reduce CO2 as much as possible as soon as possible,” says Dr. Pratt.
In December of 2021 Akio Toyoda announced Toyota will invest approximately $70-billion globally in electrified vehicles, including Hybrid-petrol Vehicles, Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles, Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles and Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV).
Akio explained Toyota wants to prepare as many options as possible for our customers around the world, and he also announced that Toyota plans to roll out 30 BEV models by 2030 and that Lexus is aiming for 100% BEV sales globally by 2035.
“There is also another reason why Toyota believes in a diversified approach to electrification, and it's a human reason. We want to give all people around the world – from all walks of life – the best tools to solve the global problem of climate change” says Pratt.
“Different people have different circumstances and different needs. Some live in areas with electrical grids powered by renewables, others live in areas that will be powered by fossil fuels for some time. Some have convenient charging stations at home and others live in cities where that is more difficult. Some are wealthy. Most are not.
“As a result, what is best for the average person or for any particular person is not best for every person: we need to supply the world with a diversity of tools. Toyota believes the best strategy today for reducing greenhouse gases is to offer a diverse portfolio of hybrid vehicles, plug-in hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles.
Pratt conceded the manufacture of products that reduce carbon emissions often emit some carbon as well, and this is generally true for solar cells and batteries.
“For example, a way to measure this phenomenon is to think of it like an investment: a carbon investment where we emit some carbon today in order to save more carbon from being emitted in the future. The term for this is CROI (carbon return on investment) and here is where it gets interesting… for batteries as a whole to reduce the most net carbon we should try and maximize the CROI of every battery cell produced.
“If we produce a battery cell and never use it, its CROI will be zero, and it will end up making climate change worse. On the other hand, if we fully use the battery cell to reduce carbon, its CROI will be strongly positive, helping mitigate climate change.
Kirby added that the local market is not yet conducive for the full adoption of BEVs, citing infrastructural shortcomings related to energy generation as well as high import duties.
“Last year, the Department of Trade, Industry and Competition published a Green Paper on incentivising the local manufacture and purchase of new energy vehicles. It is hoped that the policy would kick off soon after the white paper has been adopted in due course.”
